Nickel Holds, Costs Rise - Stainless Steel Prices Find Strong Support

Nickel prices remain range-bound, but the cost structure is shifting upward.

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Cost pressure is building beneath the surface

1. Indonesian HPM pricing reform remains in transition

2. No confirmed transactions under the new multi-element formula yet

3. Ore price negotiations are still ongoing

At the same time:

1. Sulfur prices have surged to USD 1,100–1,200/ton (record high)

2. Freight costs remain elevated

3. MHP production costs are expected to rise further

 The market may look stable, but the cost base is moving higher.

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Supply improves, but uncertainty remains

Indonesia has entered the dry season, with ore production and shipments increasing.

However:

1. Hormuz Strait tensions continue

2. Raw material supply risks persist

3. Geopolitical factors remain unresolved

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Stainless steel reacts ahead of fundamentals

1. Spot prices are already moving upward

2. Futures break previous highs again

3. Capital inflow and hedging activities are increasing

 This is not purely demand-driven. It is cost-driven momentum + capital positioning.

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Final Thought

In the short term, stainless steel prices are likely to remain elevated and volatile.

Because:

Even without strong demand, rising costs are setting a stronger floor.