DONG-YU Market Radar | Nickel Falls Below USD 18,000 – Is the Market Finding a Bottom or Preparing for Another Leg Down?
- 鋼鐵 東育
- 6月10日
- 讀畢需時 2 分鐘
June 10, 2026
After several weeks of volatility, LME Nickel has once again slipped below the psychological level of USD 18,000 per metric ton, closing at USD 17,995/MT. While the move itself may appear modest, the message behind the price action deserves closer attention from stainless steel buyers, traders, and manufacturers alike.
A Market Losing Its Risk Premium
Over the past month, nickel prices received intermittent support from geopolitical concerns, supply disruptions, and expectations of tighter raw material availability. However, many of those fears are gradually fading.
The market is now facing a different reality:
Philippine nickel ore supply remains abundant.
Indonesian domestic ore prices stay firm, but actual supply constraints have yet to translate into immediate shortages.
Global stainless steel demand remains stable rather than expanding.
Stronger U.S. employment data has revived expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
For commodity markets, higher interest rate expectations often mean a stronger U.S. Dollar, and a stronger Dollar typically creates downward pressure on base metals.
The result is clear: speculative money is reducing exposure, and nickel is losing momentum.
Stainless Steel Market: Weakness Without Panic
Unlike previous corrections, stainless steel prices are not collapsing alongside nickel.
Cold Rolled 304 and Hot Rolled 304 both eased by approximately USD 10/MT, reflecting a cautious rather than aggressive market response.
From an industry perspective, this is an important signal.
Service centers and end users are not rushing to liquidate inventory. Instead, buyers are delaying purchases while waiting for clearer direction from nickel and macroeconomic indicators.
In other words:
The market is hesitant, not fearful.
That distinction matters.
A Trader's Perspective
From a futures trading standpoint, the recent decline does not yet resemble a capitulation event.
Volume remains moderate. Inventories remain elevated. Demand has not shown signs of acceleration.
Without a major supply disruption or a significant improvement in manufacturing activity, nickel may continue trading under pressure in the short term.
Key support now lies around the USD 17,500-18,000/MT zone.
Should that level fail, another wave of technical selling cannot be ruled out.
Conversely, if U.S. inflation data surprises to the downside and weakens the Dollar, metals could quickly stage a relief rally.
The next catalyst may not come from stainless steel fundamentals at all, it may come from macroeconomics.
What Should Buyers Do?
For stainless steel consumers, the current environment is not necessarily a signal to rush purchases, nor is it a reason to postpone all procurement decisions.
A more practical approach is:
✓ Secure immediate production requirements.
✓ Avoid excessive inventory accumulation.
✓ Monitor U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve expectations closely.
✓ Stay alert for opportunities created by temporary market overreactions.
Markets rarely reward emotional decisions.
They reward disciplined timing.
DONG-YU Commentary
The stainless steel market is entering a phase where macroeconomic forces are exerting more influence than raw material fundamentals.
While nickel continues searching for direction, stainless steel prices remain relatively resilient, suggesting that physical demand has not deteriorated as dramatically as futures prices imply.
For exporters and industrial users, the coming weeks may present selective buying opportunities, but patience remains a valuable asset.
In uncertain markets, preserving flexibility is often more important than predicting the exact bottom.
