DONG-YU STEEL

The Market Isn't Weak - It's Waiting for the Next Trigger. Monday | 29 June 2026 After last week's volatility, the stainless steel market has entered another period of equilibrium. Prices remain relatively stable on the surface, but underneath, several key variables continue to reshape market expectations for the second half of the year. Nickel: The Market Is Waiting for Indonesia LME Nickel closed slightly lower at USD 16,805/MT, while SHFE Nickel recovered modestly during t

For many market participants, another decline in nickel prices appears to confirm a bearish outlook for stainless steel. I believe the reality is more nuanced. Overnight, LME Nickel retreated below USD 17,300/MT, while stainless steel futures continued to weaken. Spot prices in Wuxi followed the move, with both 304 cold rolled and hot rolled products slipping further. On the surface, the market seems trapped in a familiar cycle of weak sentiment and cautious buying. Yet benea

Every rally needs a story. For most of this year, the stainless steel market has traded on a single narrative: future nickel shortages. Indonesia's mining policies, delayed quota approvals, supply disruptions, and tightening raw material availability all contributed to a belief that nickel prices would eventually move higher. Today, that narrative is beginning to crack. LME Nickel edged higher overnight. Stainless steel futures continued to recover. Chinese spot prices moved

The Market Is Looking at Mine Closures. Smart Money Is Looking at Inventories. By DONG-YU Stainless Steel Market Commentary At the beginning of 2026, many market participants were convinced that nickel was finally approaching a turning point. Indonesia, the dominant force behind global nickel supply, had begun tightening mining quotas. Production growth was slowing. Several major operations faced disruptions. After four consecutive years of surplus, the industry expected the

Only a few days ago, the stainless steel industry was discussing a very different story. LME Nickel had successfully climbed above the USD 19,000/MT level. Supply concerns were dominating conversations. Indonesia's export policies were making headlines. Many market participants began discussing the possibility of another round of stainless steel price increases. Today, the picture looks very different. Nickel has fallen back to approximately USD 18,555/MT. The question is no

As June begins, LME nickel futures have climbed back above USD 19,300/MT, approaching their highest level in nearly a month. To experienced participants in the stainless steel and nickel markets, this move does not look like a simple technical rebound. Instead, it reflects mounting pressure that has been quietly building across the global supply chain for months. At first glance, the market appears to be reacting to higher prices. In reality, what traders are increasingly pri

In recent weeks, nickel prices have experienced violent swings. From Indonesia's proposed export tax adjustments, to Middle East geopolitical tensions, to sudden changes in sulfur supply expectations, the market has once again proven that stainless steel pricing is no longer driven by a single factor. But beneath the surface volatility, a more important signal is beginning to emerge: The stainless steel market may be entering its most dangerous phase, a phase where rising cos

Following the recent pullback in nickel futures, market sentiment has temporarily eased as expectations surrounding Indonesia's export tax implementation continue to delay. At the same time, Philippine nickel ore supply has entered its seasonal recovery phase, putting additional short-term pressure on raw material pricing. However, the market may be underestimating a deeper shift now taking place across the stainless steel supply chain. Indonesia is no longer operating only a

The biggest risk in today's stainless steel market may not be high prices. It may be waiting too long. Many buyers believe falling nickel prices automatically mean cheaper stainless steel ahead. But global supply chains no longer move on nickel alone. Freight. Energy. Geopolitics. Currency. Liquidity. All of these are now reshaping cost structures faster than most expect. This is why today's market feels increasingly unstable: Buyers delay decisions. Traders defend cash flow.

It is chasing stability. In times like these, experienced buyers do not wait for the "perfect bottom." They secure supply before uncertainty becomes cost. Because the real risk today is no longer nickel alone. It is: Freight volatility Geopolitical escalation Liquidity pressure Delayed shipments Supply chain instability When uncertainty rises, the cheapest offer on paper can quickly become the most expensive mistake later. The stainless steel market is changing. And smart pro

A Tug of War Between High Costs, Seasonal Weakness, and Rising Global Uncertainty The stainless steel market has recently entered a noticeable correction phase, with both nickel and stainless steel futures coming under pressure as market sentiment weakens rapidly. On the surface, this may appear to be a normal price pullback. However, a deeper look into supply chain behavior and market psychology reveals that the industry is no longer dealing with simple price fluctuations al

The stainless steel market is entering a phase where pricing is no longer driven by demand alone. What we are witnessing now is a collision between rising structural costs and aggressive capital positioning. On one side, upstream pressure continues to build: raw material uncertainty, tighter policy intervention, and elevated production costs. On the other, downstream buyers remain cautious. End users are still resisting high-priced offers, limiting purchases to immediate nece

The stainless steel market is sending mixed signals and many are misreading them.Prices are rising. Margins are not. What we are seeing today is not demand-driven strength, but a cost-led repricing cycle. Cost is Leading the Market Recent price increases are being pushed from the upstream. Following adjustments by Tsingshan Holding Group, along with continued strength in nickel pig iron (NPI), the cost base of stainless steel has been fundamentally lifted. Even as LME Nickel

Recent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, including potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and threats toward Bandar Abbas, are reshaping global energy expectations. Oil prices are not just rising, they are being repriced under uncertainty. At the same time, we are observing a rare macro alignment: USD remains strong RMB is strengthening LME nickel is trending upward This creates a unique distortion in the stainless steel market. While end-user de

Global markets continue to move in response to geopolitical signals, with sentiment-driven trading dominating the landscape. The recent narrative around a potential "two-week ceasefire" between the U.S. and Iran briefly fueled optimism. However, as tensions on the ground remain unresolved, markets are once again reassessing what "peace" actually means. What we are seeing is clear: The market is selectively pricing in good news, while temporarily ignoring underlying risks. Thi

A Structural Shift in Europe's Stainless Steel Cost Framework The release of Europe's stainless steel alloy surcharges for April 2026 reveals a clear deviation from conventional pricing logic. Despite a slight decline in nickel prices, surcharges have moved higher across the board. This is not a short-term anomaly, but a signal of a deeper shift in the cost structure. 1. Nickel Softens, But Cost Relief Fails to Materialize Data shows that nickel prices in March 2026 declined

As this blessed occasion arrives, we extend our sincere wishes of peace, prosperity, and renewed strength to all those celebrating. At DONG-YU Stainless Steel Enterprise Co., Ltd., we deeply respect the values that Eid represents, faith, gratitude, unity, and generosity. These principles resonate strongly with how we approach our partnerships across the global stainless steel supply chain. In a market shaped by constant change, we remain committed to what truly matters: Stabi