DONG-YU RADAR | Stainless Steel Market Insight
- 鋼鐵 東育
- 6月29日
- 讀畢需時 3 分鐘
The Market Isn't Weak - It's Waiting for the Next Trigger.
Monday | 29 June 2026
After last week's volatility, the stainless steel market has entered another period of equilibrium. Prices remain relatively stable on the surface, but underneath, several key variables continue to reshape market expectations for the second half of the year.
Nickel: The Market Is Waiting for Indonesia
LME Nickel closed slightly lower at USD 16,805/MT, while SHFE Nickel recovered modestly during the night session.
At first glance, price movement appears uneventful.
However, the real story is no longer today's nickel price.
It is Indonesia's 2026 RKAB approval process.
The Indonesian government has confirmed that the additional mining quotas have not yet been finalized. Market participants now expect mining companies to submit new quota applications during July before final approval by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM).
This has become the single most important variable for nickel.
If approvals remain conservative, tight ore supply will continue supporting nickel prices.
If approvals expand significantly, the market's current "ore shortage premium" could disappear during the second half of the year, fundamentally changing the supply outlook.
In other words,
the market is no longer trading today's supply. It is trading tomorrow's policy.
Raw Materials: Tightness Is Slowly Easing
Several developments deserve attention.
Philippine nickel ore shipments remain stable.
Chinese port inventories continue to increase.
Domestic NPI prices weakened by RMB 5/MT.
Spot sellers are gradually losing pricing power.
Although producers are still attempting to defend prices, actual transactions remain extremely quiet.
The widening gap between buyers and sellers reflects one simple reality:
Neither side has sufficient conviction to move first.
Stainless Steel: Stable Prices, Weak Demand
Physical stainless steel prices remained largely unchanged today.
Most traders maintained Friday's quotations, while a few suppliers tested the market with modest increases of approximately USD 10/MT.
However, price adjustments should not be interpreted as stronger demand.
Instead, they reflect cautious attempts to protect margins while transaction volumes remain limited.
Meanwhile, several major Chinese mills have confirmed production maintenance programs for July.
Reduced production may prevent aggressive price declines, but it is unlikely to generate a sustainable rally without meaningful improvement in downstream consumption.
The market therefore remains trapped between:
Lower production,
Seasonal demand weakness,
Limited buyer confidence.
Macro Perspective: The Strong US Dollar Remains the Headwind
Beyond industry fundamentals, macroeconomic pressure continues to weigh on base metals.
Recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have strengthened expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.
Combined with renewed support for a stronger US Dollar, this continues to suppress commodity prices across the board.
Until monetary expectations soften, nickel is unlikely to receive meaningful support from the macro environment alone.
DONG-YU RADAR Perspective
Our view remains unchanged.
Today's market is not experiencing a supply crisis.
Nor is it entering a new bull market.
Instead, it is entering a period where policy decisions matter more than production costs.
For buyers, chasing short-term fluctuations offers limited value.
Instead, attention should focus on three indicators over the coming weeks:
Indonesia's RKAB approval progress.
Chinese stainless steel production discipline during July.
Whether downstream demand returns after the traditional summer slowdown.
These three factors will likely determine pricing direction for the third quarter far more than today's daily nickel movement.
For now, we continue to recommend maintaining disciplined purchasing strategies rather than reacting to short-term market noise.
Because in today's market,
patience may prove more valuable than prediction.
DONG-YU RADAR
Seeing Beyond Today's Prices.
