Indonesia's Stainless Steel Exports to Taiwan Stage a V-Shaped Rebound: Price Signals, Channel Shifts, and Cost Pressures

According to the latest compiled customs data, in August 2025 Indonesia’s exports of 300-series stainless steel products to Taiwan Province of China showed a significant rebound, with total imports reaching 77,257 tons, up 35.6% month-on-month from July’s 56,967 tons. This reflects the notable impact of Tsingshan’s consecutive price adjustments and strategic order-taking since late July.

Although August’s total imports remain below the highs seen earlier in the year, the increase ended several months of consecutive declines. From a product structure perspective:

1.      Black coil imports: 37,422 tons, up 14.1% MoM, reflecting adjustments in raw material procurement strategies by some mills.

2. Bright coil imports: 19,965 tons, up 126.5% MoM, suggesting a certain recovery in end-user demand.

3. Semi-finished materials: 19,870 tons, up 137.4% MoM, becoming the main driver of the overall rebound.

01. Price Increases and the Rebound in Data

The V-shaped rebound in exports to Taiwan is closely linked to Tsingshan’s consecutive price hikes.

Since July, the company has raised its export offers twice, with a cumulative increase of USD 70/ton. Rather than dampening demand, the adjustments actually stimulated downstream buying interest.

According to industry sources, after Tsingshan raised its export offers in July, its order intake improved noticeably compared with Q2, and monthly sales to Taiwan returned to levels seen in Q1 this year.

Because futures-based order models mean August arrivals largely reflect July bookings, the rebound highlights the “buy-up-trend” mentality, with processors and end-users moving to secure orders in advance.

02. Channel Transformation and Structural Change

Tsingshan’s recent channel restructuring has had a far-reaching impact on Taiwan’s stainless market. Local agents have adjusted their procurement strategies, and some distributors, in order to win orders, have been forced to provide additional processing services on a “more volume, no extra charge” basis.

The product mix has also shifted sharply. Semi-finished imports surged 137.4%, while bright coil share rose to 27.7%, reflecting a short-term pickup in downstream processing orders in Taiwan.

03. Cost Support and Price Transmission

Rising raw material costs are providing strong support to stainless prices. Nickel pig iron has reached fresh recent highs, while ferrochrome is also trending steadily upward. Cost pressures have been further magnified through the currency channel.

The New Taiwan dollar depreciated sharply from 29.716 at end-July to around 30.505 in August, adding extra cost per ton solely through exchange-rate movements.

Despite the strong data, end-use demand recovery remains uncertain. Major downstream industries such as semiconductors and machinery manufacturing still face weak orders. The market shows a pattern of “stable prices, weak volumes.” Even in the traditional peak-season month of September, stainless demand has not significantly improved. End-users remain cautious, with buying characterized by “observe, adjust, and top-up,” preferring multiple small replenishments.

While the price-hike strategy has worked in the short term, whether terminal demand can absorb the ongoing cost pass-through will remain the key issue for the coming months.