9/8 – 3 Sentences to Read the Stainless Steel Market Today

304: Indonesian Labor Unrest Meets Peak Season – A Strong Start to September

The 304 stainless steel market posted modest gains this week. Early in the week, large-scale labor demonstrations across Indonesia triggered market concerns over the stability of labor supply in nickel mining, smelting, and downstream processing, pushing nickel and stainless steel prices sharply higher. As the immediate impact faded, futures prices pulled back, yet strong seasonal demand has kept sentiment firm. In 300-series inventories fell by 6,500 tons this week (2,400 tons cold-rolled, 4,200 tons hot-rolled), bringing total holdings down to 376,600 tons. On the cost side, both nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferrochrome prices are notably higher than a month ago, increasing production pressure as many mills remain in negative margins. With Indonesian unrest fueling further upside potential in NPI and South African production cuts tightening ferrochrome supply, cost support remains solid. Combined with peak-season demand, 304 prices are expected to trend firm.

201: Broad Price Adjustments, Market Confidence Restored but Supply Risks Loom

Prices in the 201 market moved higher this week. Elevated raw material costs and stronger futures supported spot prices, with traders adjusting offers upward and buyers responding actively. However, as the futures market weakened later in the week, downstream sentiment shifted to wait-and-see, resulting in more moderate transaction volumes. On the supply side, steel mill margins improved in August, leading to higher crude steel production plans for 200-series in September. This signals mounting supply pressure ahead. In the near term, prices are expected to hold steady on cost support, though mid-term risks from increased supply must be watched carefully.

430: Inventories Decline Further, Prices Edge Higher

The 430 market also saw slight gains this week, with cold-rolled spot prices edging up by Thursday compared with last weekend. Ferrochrome prices remain stable and firm, providing strong cost support for the 400-series. Meanwhile, inventory drawdowns in the 400-series accelerated, easing supply pressure. Against this backdrop, 430 prices are expected to maintain a steady to slightly firmer trajectory next week.

Summary:

1.     304: Indonesian labor unrest and peak season demand are pushing costs higher, keeping prices firm.

2.     201: Prices adjusted upward with stronger confidence, but rising production signals supply pressure ahead.

3.     430: Inventories continue to decline, ferrochrome support remains strong, and prices edge steadily higher.